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In a research note, JMP Securities analyst Samuel Wilson handicaps the Oct. 22 launch of Windows 7 (Techmeme, Microsoft statement). Wilson’s big takeaway: Apple will grab the news flow with a new iPhone release, but Windows 7 may impact Mac sales shortly after. Indeed, Microsoft is already revving up the Windows 7 marketing and incentive machine.

Wilson writes:

In all our work, surveys and channel checks, the biggest reason that Apple is preferred over PCs (Microsoft-based machines) is because of the Operating System. The hardware is a secondary reason, with many thin, light, and significantly cheaper PCs available today. The problem is that generally these machines run Vista, which by almost all accounts outside Microsoft HQ is a terrible OS. Rivals putting together good hardware, lower prices, and a decent operating system could equal a slowdown in Apple’s laptop and desktop sales.

That point raises an interesting question: Is the Mac resurgence a case of a Microsoft’s fumbling of Vista? We’ll never know completely but surely Vista gave Apple an opening it has exploited for two years with some great commercials.

Also see: Windows 7 special report and most popular Windows 7 content

However, Wilson notes that Windows 7 appears to have what it takes to give Microsoft some momentum. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s laptop hunters campaign appears to be working.