Windows 7, Vista, XP – There Will Be Blood
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When two is a crowd, Windows 7, Windows Vista and Windows XP will suffocate the market, with all three operating systems available concomitantly, albeit XP will be the most handicapped of the three, but still up for grabs, and even available through downgrade options.
When it launched Vista, Microsoft told customers that it was time to get off XP. When it offered Service Pack 1 for Vista, the Redmond company gave the market, perhaps the first time with Vista, an actual alternative to XP. The release of SP3 in 2008 did nothing for the soon to be decade-old operating system, although it was long overdue following the launch of XP SP2 in 2004. With Windows 7 on the horizon expect a reinvigorated “get off XP” refrain.
Simply because, just as XP was Vista's biggest rival, it will also be the most consistent barrier in the way of Windows 7 grabbing audience. And just as Vista had to erode XP in order to increase its market share, so will Windows 7 need to convert not only XP, but also Vista users to grow its installed base. Fact is that neither Mac OS X nor Linux are in danger of seeing their respective share of the market converted to Windows 7. The battle is however over existing Windows users and new consumers, especially from emerging countries, one between Linux and Windows, and in which the latter has the upper hand.
In a research note published earlier this month, Gartner indicates that getting off Windows XP is the true priority, with Windows Vista vs. Windows 7 having less relevance. Gartner's vision is obviously tailored to businesses and not to the general public. Still, there are points valid for both target groups. One of them is: if you skipped Vista altogether don't be so fast as giving yourself a pat on the back.
“Although Microsoft remains circumspect about its target date for the release of the new OS, we expect Windows 7 will likely be released to manufacturing in September 2009 or earlier so it can be preinstalled on new PCs available in store shelves by November. As the release of Windows 7 nears and the beta version garners good reviews for performance and stability, more organizations are beginning to question current Windows Vista deployment plans,” revealed Gartner's Michael A. Silver.
