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Two-and-a-half years ago, Microsoft launched Origami, or ultra-mobile PC, among great fanfare and criticism. The fanfare came from successful, viral marketing for a mystery product. Criticism was for pricing. Microsoft's price goal was $500 or less for the touchscreen, sub-tablet UMPC; but most OEMs delivered devices costing at least $300 more and many of them for above $1,000.

I was skeptical of Origami from the start, because the half-notebooks came to market when laptop prices were free falling. In a March 2006 blog post, I warned that notebooks would likely compete with UMPCs, despite Microsoft's positioning them as a different category. Because JupiterResearch long ago took down the Microsoft Monitor Weblog, I must quote myself:

"As price increases, consumers will have good reason to compare Origami to portable computers. My 11-year-old daughter asked the right questions about Origami. She said, 'What can you do with Origami that you can't do with Tablet PC [or a notebook]? What can't you do with Origami that you can do with a Tablet PC or notebook?'

"As an Origami device's price approaches that of low-cost notebooks, trade-offs and perceived value could have greater impact on buying decisions. Is the consumer's priority smaller size (and so greater portability) or a keyboard, because, after all, Ultra-Mobile PCs and laptops run Windows? Planned contextual use, personal preference and budget are among the factors influencing the purchase decision."

Where UMPC failed to generate meaningful sales, netbooks are pulling in buyers. Similarities are striking:

* Screen sizes are comparable—typically 7 inches to about 10.2 inches, with UMPCs much smaller.

* Physical size and weight, typically under 3 pounds, are about the same.

* Both devices usually run Windows and often XP.

* Neither device typically has an optical drive.

But there are some big differences:

* Many netbooks do sell for under $500, while remaining UMPCs typically cost more.

* Linux-based models cost even less, often for under $300.

* Netbooks have traditional notebook-style keyboards; UMPCs typically use non-traditional, or touchscreen "soft" keyboards.

Way I see it, the keyboard is the differentiator. Netbooks offer most of the portability benefits associated with UMPCs but with a real keyboard.