180 Million Vista Licenses Mean What?
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Microsoft shipped about 40 million Vista licenses in the second quarter, or 180 million since the operating system's launch. But how many Vista licenses were on new PCs? Not nearly enough.
I've been planning to get to this analysis for weeks. But vacation, which ends later today, and other pressing news delayed writing. Bottom line: Vista is shipping on more PCs. That said, 40 million licenses shipped doesn't mean 40 million copies of Vista deployed. But you knew that, right?
According to Gartner, computer manufacturers shipped 72 million PCs worldwide during the second calendar quarter. The number includes x86 servers. Manufacturers typically ship a little more than 2 million servers a quarter (2.2 million in the first quarter), presumably the majority being x86 servers. Rounding up to 2 million x86 servers for math convenience, therefore, PC OEMs shipped about 70 million desktops and laptops.
By a simple calculation, Vista shipped on 57 percent of new PCs during the second quarter. However, OEMs account for only about 80 percent of Vista sales, which makes the number of Vista licenses shipping on new PCs to be 32 million. By my estimates, then, 46 percent of computers shipped with Windows Vista during the second calendar quarter.
That's an impressive number that is smaller in larger context. Based on my earlier estimate, Vista shipped on about 37 percent of new PCs from its Jan. 30, 2007, launch through April 30, 2008. How does that percentage look three more months of PC and Vista shipments later?
Between Jan. 30, 2007, and June 30, 2008, PC manufacturers shipped approximately 370 million PCs worldwide, according to published Gartner figures. I reduced the number by 42 million to account for the estimated number of x86 servers shipped and for the first 29 days of January 2007, when Vista PCs were not available for sale. Gartner's numbers were from Jan. 1, 2007, before my estimated adjustments.
Microsoft shipped the aforementioned 180 million Vista licenses during the same time period. The real number of Vista licenses shipped on new PCs is 144 million, assuming 80 percent of sales go through the OEM channel. By my arguably rough estimate, therefore, Windows Vista shipped on 39 percent of new PCs since its widespread release more than 18 months ago.
Neither percentage is great for Vista, but the second-quarter number indicates a changing trend. More PCs are finally shipping with the operating system, and that number is likely to shoot up in the third quarter. On June 30, Microsoft largely removed Windows XP from the OEM channel. System builders can still ship Windows XP through Jan. 30, 2009. Customers can still obtain an XP downgrade license on PCs with Windows Vista Business or Ultimate. But even if the PC is deployed with XP, Microsoft can count a Vista license shipped.
