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As far as Microsoft is concerned, it reached the apex of the operating system market with the launch of Service Pack 2 for Windows XP back in 2004. Since then, it has been all down hill for the Redmond giant. Sure, the slope is by no means steep enough for a hard Windows fall, just sufficiently inclined through the erosion produced by Mac OS X and Linux that the ground is slipping from under Microsoft's proprietary platform, slowly but surely...

While Windows is not at risk from a landslide, it has been on a descendant trajectory for the past years, with consumers suffering from Windows fatigue, and increasingly looking for alternatives. Recent releases such as Windows Vista in 2007, and Vista Service Pack 1 as well as Windows XP Service Pack 3 have done little to impact the general trend. As of May 2008 Windows is credited with 91.13% of the operating system market according to Net Applications, with 91.11% by W3Counter and with 95.94% by OneState (but only as of April 2008).

In January 2007, when Windows Vista hit the shelves, Net Applications revealed a share of 93.33% for Windows, approximately two percent higher than in January 2008. Back in July 2007, OneStat gave Windows a share of 96.97%, also larger than the 95.94% from a couple of months ago. W3Counter seem to be on par with Net Applications indicating that Windows was at 93.6% of the market in May 2007, and as low as 91.11% in the past month.

Windows Saturation

The release of Service Pack 1 for Windows Vista and of Service Pack 3 for Windows XP has done little to help break what appears to be a generalized and accentuating case of Windows fatigue. Net Applications stated that SP3 for XP failed to impact the operating system's continuous market share lost for over a year. Even with SP3 available as of May 6, 2008, XP continued to lose audience and is down from 73.07% in April to 72.12% the past month. Vista continues to climb in statistics, but SP1 didn't deliver the kick needed to accelerate growth to the levels where focus will no longer shift to XP SP3, Windows 7 or rival products. Vista only climbed from 14.02% in March to 15.26% in May.

Windows Vista, the Default Growth

Windows Vista climbed up in the space occupied by Windows XP to claim the second most used operating system on the market since mid-2007. Since the January 2007 launch, Vista's growth has somewhat stabilized at around 10 million units per month. At the end of March 2008, Microsoft revealed that it had sold over 140 million Vista licenses worldwide. As of May, Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer claimed that Vista had passed the 150 million mark.

Don't Expect Miracles from Windows 7

Even though Windows Vista has taken all the heavy hits, acting as a buffer release for Windows 7, the next iteration of Microsoft's proprietary operating system will drop in a market which has started to experience Windows fatigue for a number of years. But unlike Vista, Windows 7 will benefit from the get go from a mature ecosystem of software and hardware products. Microsoft is essentially promising a Windows 7 apple which will fall far tom the Vista tree, while at the same time featuring the same architecture as its predecessor, in terms of the kernel, and the graphics and audio subsystems, security and search functionality, etc.