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The "largely" qualifier is because downgrade rights will still be available to some customers, and system builders can ship PCs with XP through January 2009.

The next 30 days are crucial for anyone still wanting to easily obtain Windows XP on new PCs. But why wait? Why not try Vista, and only Vista, for the next 30 days?

Filmmaker Morgan Spurlock pioneered the 30-days concept in the movie "Supersize Me," where he only ate McDonalds food for, you guessed it, 30 days. The concept continues in the FX series "30 Days." I don't believe that Morgan has done a 30-day stretch with Windows Vista, but maybe he should.

There are some people fixated on the idea that Windows XP will get a reprieve, that Microsoft will extend widespread availability beyond June 30. Microsoft executives would be absolute, unequivocal ninkenpoops to keep Windows XP in the mainstream PC marketplace.

Last week, I crunched some numbers to give some perspective on the sorry state of Windows Vista distribution. Last week, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer gave a new number of Vista licenses shipped: 150 million. That sounds like a whole lot before looking at worldwide PC shipments, at least 331 million, from Jan. 1, 2007 to March 31, 2008 based on some extrapolation of published Gartner data. Gartner includes x86 server shipments, but I removed all 11 million servers shipped during the time period. I came up with this estimate: Vista shipped on 37 percent of PCs worldwide since its Jan. 30, 2007.

But the estimate is unquestionably high, cutting slack to a company besieged by Vista perception problems. A more accurate accounting: Vista probably shipped on no more than one-third of PCs since general availability. Linux and Mac OS account for some of shipments; other PCs had no operating system or pirated Windows. Given Microsoft's PC marketshare is at least 93 percent, there is only one conclusion: The majority of PCs are shipping with Windows XP, and that doesn't account for Vista licenses downgraded to the older operating system. Microsoft has to get Windows XP out of the OEM market as quick as it can.

So, I would be shocked if Microsoft granted an extension, and my recommendation is for Microsoft to get XP out of the OEM channel as soon as humanly possible. Windows XP is an option Microsoft needs to do away with.

There's no reason to wait 30 days for XP to go away. My challenge: Try Vista for 30 days, right now. I've done several 30-day stints (longer, really) with only Vista. No XP, no Mac OS X. Thirty days with Vista is no longer super painful, particularly if Service Pack 1 is installed.