Vista Sales Estimates Indicate Dwindling Retail Channel
link: original article - section: windows
Comparing preliminary information released by NPD this morning regarding launch week sales for Microsoft Windows Vista versus historical NPD data for prior years, BetaNews has learned the news for Microsoft may seem even more daunting than at first believed:
Though unit sales for Vista's launch week decreased 58.9% over the launch week of Windows XP in October 2001, the way NPD tabulates its launch week data -- the methodology for which NPD confirmed to BetaNews this afternoon -- indicates that retail unit sales of Vista may actually be 25% or less per day during Vista's launch week than for XP's.
As NPD analyst David Riley told BetaNews, NPD has always tabulated weeks as periods extending from Sunday to the following Saturday, regardless of what day the product may have actually launched. So a "launch week" is not seven days' worth of data.
Previous NPD data reported that Windows XP sold around 300,000 copies during its launch week. But with XP launching on a Thursday, that figure only accounted for three days of sales. Windows 98 sold 400,000 during its launch week in June 1998, although it was also launched on a Thursday. Windows Me, which was an admittedly lackluster launch of about 200,000 copies, first hit shelves in September 2000...on a Thursday. Windows Vista launched on Tuesday, January 30, so NPD's sales figures - which analysts confirmed today - accounts for a full five days of sales.
If those preliminary figures stand up, retail copies of Vista may be selling fewer than 25,000 copies per day - one-fourth of XP's estimated retail sales during its launch week. - for a total of under 125,000 copies for the week.
But does this really mean Vista is less popular? According to this morning's memo from NPD analyst Chris Swenson, the firm's retail point-of-sale dataset is comprised of data submitted by major US retailers, including both online retailers such as Amazon and storefronts such as Best Buy, Circuit City, CompUSA, and office supply stores. With just that knowledge in hand, two factors may help compensate for what otherwise would appear terrible news:
* First, the download channel may be more popular, as XP owners could be finding it easier to simply buy and burn the disc themselves than drive home with a useless box.
* Second, Windows Vista's launch is the first to have been split between business and consumers, with businesses having gained access starting last November. In 2001, many small businesses still upgraded to XP by driving down to Best Buy and picking up a copy, as many per-hour computer consultants at that time would attest. With Vista Enterprise's capability to be installed by way of a server through a company network, enterprises may now have more incentive to download the operating system now - since prices are not likely to decline - and implement their network migrations on a per-seat basis using the Software Assurance program, even though the migration process may take years.
NPD itself may have provided some evidence to back up the contention that retail customers represent a smaller segment of the overall market than before, with its revelation last month that commercial sales of Vista reaped 62.5% more revenue for Microsoft during the complete first month of March than did Windows 2000 during its first complete month of sales in March 2000.
Of course, Vista's average selling prices are as much as two-thirds higher as well, which evens things out significantly. But judging from Vista's total sales just to businesses in January, NPD's Swenson estimated last month that this figure was only lower than XP's total sales to all customers in November 2001, by a meager 3.7%.
