Shipping Windows Vista, When?
link: original article - section: windows
Goals are important, but they often aren't met in software development. Microsoft's roving release dates are pretty good examples.
Take for example my August 2003 JupiterResearch report, "Longhorn: Implications of Next Windows' Ship Date." Back then Microsoft had indicated that Windows XP's successor would ship in 2005 and pretty much nobody predicted 2006 delivery.
From the report: "Jupiter Research believes Microsoft will try to ship Longhorn for the 2005 holiday season, but problems associated with aligning the constellation of new products and ensuring existing-application backward compatibility will push public release to 2006." The report hedges a bit, but my expectation, in 2003, was Longhorn (now Windows Vista) delivery would come in second half 2006.
Long ago, I gave up the release date chase, although I do keep some track for the benefit of interested JupiterResearch clients.
The news media is still on the chase, though. Hot on the tails of the April story that Windows Vista wouldn't ship until 2007, there are news reports saying Microsoft plans to release Windows Vista on July 25, 2006. Assuming Microsoft could hit that date, Windows Vista PCs would likely start shipping on new PCs four to eight weeks later, depending on the computer manufacturer (Dell could be even sooner, while retail-dependent vendors would be later).
I don't doubt that Microsoft has some date in mind. Last news reported date was sometime in May 2006; so I expect someone, somewhere will write that Windows Vista's release date has slipped, again. For the record: The date hasn't slipped. Microsoft started with a moving target, and the release date remains that way. And that moving target is within Microsoft. The company's public release date is late 2006.
As I've blogged before, Windows Vista's development progress is closely aligned with Windows Server 2003 R2. Simply put: It was from clean server code that Microsoft began earnest Windows Vista development. I would expect Windows Vista Beta 2 (the build that supposedly will be publicly distributed) to be available around the same time as or soon after Windows Server 2003 R2 releases to manufacturing. Hypothetically, assuming Microsoft releases the public Windows Vista beta in December, development time to go from major beta to final release would be tight to meet that late July 2006 date.
source: microsoftmonitor.com
